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          引爆全球市場,鮑威爾都說了啥?

          好買說:美聯儲主席鮑威爾在當地時間(11月30日)發表噤聲前的最后一次演講。演講中證實,美聯儲最早將在12月放緩緊縮步伐,但同時也強調將進一步加息以對抗通脹。美國三大股指應聲全線大漲,道指更是開啟了技術性牛市,而美債收益率則隨同美元雙雙大幅下跌。

          鮑威爾演講要點:

          1、承認通脹仍然過高的現實

          今天我想向諸位提供一份FOMC恢復美國經濟價格穩定的進展報告,恢復價格穩定旨在造福美國人民。報告必須先承認通脹率仍然過高的現實。我和我的同事切身地意識到了高通脹正在造成重大的困難,使預算緊張而薪水的購買力也變得吃緊。對于那些最無力支付食品、住房和交通等必需品成本的人來說,通脹尤其痛苦。保持價格穩定是美聯儲的責任,也是我們經濟的基石。沒有價格穩定,經濟對任何人都無濟于事。需要強調的是,沒有價格穩定,我們就無法實現惠及所有人的可持續的強勁勞動力市場狀況。

          原文:
          Today I will offer a progress report on the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC)efforts to restore price stability to the U.S.economy for the benefit of the American people.The report must begin by acknowledging the reality that inflation remains far too high.My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation is imposing significant hardship,straining budgets and shrinking what paychecks will buy.This is especially painful for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food,housing,and transportation.Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy.Without price stability,the economy does not work for anyone.In particular,without price stability,we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.

          2、核心通脹(PCE)下降,但要注意下降后的再度回升

          根據我們目前的估計,截至今年10月的12個月個人消費支出(PCE)通脹率為6%(圖1)。雖然迄今為止收到的10月份通脹數據顯示出令人欣喜的下行意外,但這只是單月的數據,而此前我們才經歷了兩個月的通脹上行意外。正如圖1所表明的,數據下降的當月往往緊隨其后的是通脹的再度回升。我們需要更多的證據才能讓我們確信通脹率確實在下降。從任何標準來看,通脹率仍然太高。

          原文:
          We currently estimate that 12-month personal consumption expenditures (PCE)inflation through October ran at 6.0 percent (figure 1).1 While October inflation data received so far showed a welcome surprise to the downside,these are a single month's data, which followed upside surprises over the previous two months.As figure 1 makes clear,down months in the data have often been followed by renewed increases.It will take substantially more evidence to give comfort that inflation is actually declining.By any standard,inflation remains much too high.

          3、通脹可能明年大幅下降,但是未來仍然充滿不確定性

          通脹何時會下降?我可以通過私人部門預測者或FOMC參與者的通脹預測來回答這個問題,預測廣泛地指向了明年(通脹)可能大幅下降。但是,一年多來,預測者一直在預測通脹會下降,而通脹卻頑固地橫向移動。事實是,通貨膨脹的未來路徑仍然非常不確定?,F在,讓我們拋開預測,審視我們認為需要看到的宏觀經濟條件,以便在一段時間內將通脹率降至2%。

          原文:
          I could answer this question by pointing to the inflation forecasts of private-sector forecasters or of FOMC participants,which broadly show a significant decline over the next year.But forecasts have been predicting just such a decline for more than a year,while inflation has moved stubbornly sideways.The truth is that the path ahead for inflation remains highly uncertain.For now,let's put aside the forecasts and look instead to the macroeconomic conditions we think we need to see to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time.

          4、終端利率很可能比9月會議和經濟預測摘要時的4.6%更高一些

          首先,我們需要將利率提高到一個有足夠限制性的水平,使通脹恢復到2%。至于什么水平的利率才是足夠限制性的則有很大的不確定性,盡管毫無疑問,我們已經取得了實質性的進展,自3月份以來,我們將聯邦基金利率的目標區間范圍提高了3.75%。正如聯儲上次的會后聲明所指出的,我們預計持續提高利率將是適當的。在我看來,終端利率很可能需要比9月會議和經濟預測摘要時的數字更高一些。我將在評論的最后回到政策問題上,但現在我只想說,我們還有更多的工作要做。

          原文:
          For starters,we need to raise interest rates to a level that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent.There is considerable uncertainty about what rate will be sufficient,although there is no doubt that we have made substantial progress, raising our target range for the federal funds rate by 3.75 percentage points since March.As our last postmeeting statement indicates,we anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate. It seems to me likely that the ultimate level of rates will need to be somewhat higher than thought at the time of the September meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.I will return to policy at the end of my comments,but for now,I will simply say that we have more ground to cover.

          5、經濟需求的增長已經放緩,我們預計增長需要在一段持續期內保持較慢的速度

          去年,經濟重啟推升了美國的實際GDP增長,增速達到非常強勁的5.7%。今年,實際GDP在前三個季度基本持平,而各項指標顯示本季度增長溫和,這似乎可能使今年的總體經濟增長非常溫和。有幾個因素致使增長放緩,包括重啟和疫情期財政支持的消褪,俄烏沖突的全球影響,以及我們的貨幣政策行動,政策收緊了金融條件,正對經濟活動構成影響,尤其是在房地產等對利率敏感的部門。經濟需求的增長已經放緩,我們預計增長需要在一段持續期內保持較慢的速度。

          原文:
          Last year,the ongoing reopening of the economy boosted real gross domestic product (GDP)growth to a very strong 5.7 percent. This year,GDP was roughly flat through the first three quarters,and indicators point to modest growth this quarter,which seems likely to bring the year in with very modest growth overall.Several factors contributed to this slowing growth,including the waning effects of reopening and of pandemic fiscal support,the global implications of Russia's war against Ukraine,and our policy actions,which tightened financial conditions and are affecting economic activity, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors such as housing.We can say that demand growth has slowed,and we expect that this growth will need to remain at a slower pace for a sustained period.

          6、核心通脹率切分為三個組成部分:核心商品通脹率、住房服務通脹率和住房以外的核心服務通脹率

          盡管過去一年政策收緊且增長放緩,但我們仍未看到通脹放緩的明顯進展。為了評估要怎樣才能使通脹下降,需要將核心通脹率切分為三個組成部分進行分析:核心商品通脹率、住房服務通脹率和住房以外的核心服務通脹率(圖2)。

          原文:
          Despite the tighter policy and slower growth over the past year,we have not seen clear progress on slowing inflation.To assess what it will take to get inflation down,it is useful to break core inflation into three component categories:core goods inflation,housing services inflation,and inflation in core services other than housing (figure 2).

          7、疫情期出現的勞動力供應短缺一不太可能被很快解決

          勞動力市場緊湊的跡象在2021年中期突然浮現。當時的失業率遠遠高于疫情之前未有緊湊跡象的3.5%的水平。就業水平仍然比疫情前的水平低了數百萬?;仡欉^去,我們可以看到,疫情期出現了重大且持續的勞動力供應短缺一而這種短缺似乎不太可能被很快解決。

          原文:
          Signs of elevated labor market tightness emerged suddenly in mid-2021.The unemployment rate at the time was much higher than the 3.5 percent that had prevailed without major signs of tightness before the pandemic.Employment was still millions below its level on the eve of the pandemic.Looking back,we can see that a significant and persistent labor supply shortfall opened up during the pandemic-a shortfall that appears unlikely to fully close anytime soon.

          8、放緩加息步伐的時機可能最快在12月的議息會議上到來

          貨幣政策對經濟和通貨膨脹的影響具有不確定的滯后性,而且我們迄今為止的快速緊縮政策的全部效果還沒有顯現出來。因此,當我們接近足以使通貨膨脹率下降的約束水平時,放緩我們的加息步伐是說得通的。放緩加息步伐的時機可能最快在12月的議息會議上到來??紤]到我們在政策緊縮方面的進展,放緩的時間節點遠沒有我們需要進一步提高利率以控制通貨膨脹,且有必要將政策保持在限制性水平的持續期等問題重要?;謴蛢r格穩定可能需要在一段時間內將政策保持在限制性水平。歷史警示我們不要過早地放松政策。我們將堅持到底,直到大功告成。

          原文:
          Monetary policy affects the economy and inflation with uncertain lags,and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt.Thus,it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down.The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.Given our progress in tightening policy,the timing of that moderation is far less significant than the questions of how much further we will need to raise rates to control inflation,and the length of time it will be necessary to hold policy at a restrictive level.It is likely that restoring price stability will require holding policy at a restrictive level for some time.History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.We will stay the course until the job is done.

          風險提示:投資于國際證券市場,除了需要承擔與國內證券類似的市場波動風險等一般投資風險之外,還面臨匯率風險等國際證券市場投資所面臨的特別投資風險,也需要投資者注意。

          風險提示:投資有風險。相關數據僅供參考,不構成投資建議。投資人請詳閱基金合同和基金招募說明書,確認您自覺履行投資人的各項義務,并自行承擔投資風險。

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